- Hours ago, Europe was surprised by last minute nomination a strong name Ursula von der Leyen the German Minister of Defense. The instinct of nominating a woman to lead the EU Commission was agreed mutually by the French President and the German Chancellor as opposition among the two countries grew distant.
There are two different analysis on the current elections but the outcome results of the EU vs Brexit won’t change. Brexit still taking effect, I still see Theresa May passing the Baton to Boris Johnson and definitely I see no clear traces of any Deal post Brexit. On the contrary I still foresee a weak Europe divided. Ever last Macron and Merkel decided upon a strong nominee, the far right face of Europe is still stronger. But in my previous article I clearly mentioned for the first time we are about to witness a stronger France in face of Germany. Macron wasn’t satisfied with the nomination of Weber as he labeled Weber a threat to Democracy. Germany couldn’t agree better to pass on a strong name in face of the new rise of Nationalism. But Merkel is leaving weak. Despite Ursula nomination, I still withhold to my analytic vision to strong Nationalism or affiliated Socialists. On the other hand of the sequence, nobody wants a Merkel Legacy behind after her departure. As I also previously mentioned, Germany will be back leading strong in face of Macron post Merkel departure. Meanwhile France is enjoying a powerful house on decisions. Who leads Europe’s elections? Currently the people’s need to see their representative more concerned on their values more than a Political one. The era of geopolitics is over. Geoeconomics leads. Therefore it will be hard to see Ursula climbing the final seat winning any debate in the Trade deals. The face of Europe need to be succeeded by an Economic oriented leader on the Commission. Brexit is creating a fear that people may fall back into the shadowing time of Socialism. This fear is awakening Nationalism on different level. This Nationalism is more Economic concerned than ideological. Therefore I see poor chances of Ursula taking the leadership role which assert my statement “Merkel finishing her term weak” and Macron the inability to secure his next elections winning prize. On the other side of the story Ursula winning the elections in few hours, the world should expect a wider division on Iran or a preparation to hold strong military wise in face of the upcoming changes towards China and the German next elections.
